The Bromley and Chislehurst by-election last week saw a stupendous result for the Liberal Democrats in one of the safest Conservative seats in the country. It shows that there is no confidence in Cameron's Tories in the Conservative heartlands. Together with the results in Wales, where there was a complete rejection of the Labour government, the Liberal Democrats well and truly consolidated their success in Dumfermline earlier this year .
Whilst the Tories managed to hang on to the seat in Bromley and Chislehurst, they saw their majority slashed from 13,342 votes to just 633. There was a swing in favour of the Liberal Democrats of an incredible 17.5%, the highest increase in vote share in any by-election of this Parliament.
In the Blaenau Gwent By-election the Labour candidate took 4th place, behind UKIP. This is the first time the party in power has finished 4th in an English by-election since 1991.
Statisticians have been hard at work since the results came in and have established that if the swing from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats was repeated uniformly across the country at a general election, it would mean the Lib Dems gaining 123 seats from the Conservatives, including David Cameron's Witney seat and David Davis's in Haltemprice and Howden. The additional swing from Labour to the Lib Dems would mean the Lib Dems gaining 217 seats from them, including Margaret Becket's Derby South seat and Jack Straw's in Blackburn.
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